ECONOMICS - ČASOPIS ZA INOVACIJSKA I EKONOMSKA ISTRAŽIVANJA

NEW APPROACH TO ESTIMATING MACROECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF INFORMAL EMPLOYMENT

Nikola Vidović, Vladana Ritan — Tue, 13 Dec 2022 00:00:00 +0100

Informal employment is a less favourable type of employment whose levels
policy makers usually want to decrease and move these workers in the formal
part of the labour market. It is more commonly found in LDCs and in developing
economies, than in developed ones. This paper uses a cross-section multiple
regression analysis to check the effects of multiple macroeconomic variables on
the size of the informal labour market. The sample is made out of economies
for which ILO has published data about the share of employment outside the
formal sector, excluding the economies that receive aid from IDA, using 2017,
2018 and 2019 data from the International Labour Organization and other
international organizations. Results show that macroeconomic variables do not
have significant explanatory power, except for unemployment rate, exports and
GDP growth rate.

DIGITAL WORKPLACE TRANSFORMATION: INNOVATIVE APPROACH AFTER COVID-19 PANDEMIC

Ljubiša Mićić, Zoran Mastilo — Tue, 13 Dec 2022 00:00:00 +0100

COVID-19 had undoubtedly speeded up adoption of digital technologies. Most
of the theoreticians agree that changes that happened in the pandemic period
would not happen in the next several years or even decades. There is almost no
business operation that has not been affected by the pandemic, from customer
relation and sales to supply chain. It influenced different business sectors
leaving permanent change and making a significant proportion of organizations
working in at least hybrid mode: combining digital and traditional pre-pandemic
ways of working. COVID-19 had significantly changed the workplace and way
of working. Workplace has shifted to digital or at least hybrid and employees
and companies have adopted new ways of working, including usage of digital
technologies but also accepting more agile and flexible procedures and rules.
The research community has followed this phenomenon and tried to provide
best possible recommendation to it accordance to recognized research methods.
The paper provides a systematic literature review of the most significant scientific
and industry publication in the years after the pandemic start. It is based on
Kitchenham methodology of the systematic review with selected publication
from recognized bibliographic databases. First part provides general effects of
the pandemic to digital transformation of businesses all over the globe, mostly
connected to analysis of the employees’ workplace preference. The second part
is focused on digital workplace transformation and presents key theoretical and
professional findings in the post-pandemic workplace. This part is consisted of
the preview of benefits of the digital workplace transformation, identification of
critical success factors and the most significant challenges of the process.

IMPACT OF ENERGY INNOVATIONS ON THE UKRAINE’S ECONOMY: STRATEGIC DIRECTION AND MANAGERIAL PRACTICES

Tue, 13 Dec 2022 00:00:00 +0100

Diversification of energy sources and innovative development of the energy
sector are one of the main directions for ensuring sustainable development
and decarbonization of the economy. The aim of the article is to identify
connections and interactions between the parameters of energy innovation
development and economic growth. Factor analysis was used for this purpose.
The results and conclusions determine the most influential factors among the
5 components identified in accordance with the functional areas of innovative
development of the national economy in energetics. The analysis allowed to
identify the main trends in the development of factors, which allowed to identify
positive and negative changes. The regularities of the influence of certain factors
on energy innovations have been determined, which has allowed to provide
recommendations for their further development and regulation.

ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC FACTORS ON REAL ESTATE PRICES IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA

Dragan Stanković — Tue, 13 Dec 2022 00:00:00 +0100

Economic theory and practice are not acquainted with any unique set of
macroeconomic factors that affect real estate prices. The very complexity of
this phenomenon relativizes any attempt to establish an unchanged list of
macroeconomic factors in BiH. The aim of the research in this paper is to analyze
the impact of selected macroeconomic indicators on real estate prices in BiH, in
the period from 2007 to 2019. Out of numerous macroeconomic factors that affect
real estate prices (real estate prices are viewed as: the value of construction works
done and as the value of new dwellings - new construction), 12 macroeconomic
factors were singled out: nominal gross domestic product, real GDP growth
rate, industrial production growth rate, GDP per capita, average net wages,
imports and exports, household deposits in commercial banks, interest rate
(housing loans, annual, %), loans to households, household final consumption
expenditure, gross fixed capital formation and government final consumption
expenditure. Starting from the hypothesis that macroeconomic factors affect
real estate prices, it has been concluded that the selected factors significantly
determine real estate prices and that most of the predictor variables defined in
the model are significant, in terms of impact on the movement of GDP and real
estate prices in Bosnia and Herzegovina in the period analyzed. The greatest
impact on real estate prices is by household final consumption expenditure,
GDP per capita, nominal GDP, interest rate, household deposits and real GDP
growth rate. The research used factor analysis (reduction of macroeconomic
factors to the optimal number of factors that explain the analyzed phenomenon
and its impact on real estate prices) and an extended multiple linear regression
model with a statistical software program SPSS, version 21. Modeling the impact
of macroeconomic factors on real estate prices has macroeconomic effects
and benefits for the country and contributes to the growth and well-being of
operators in the real estate market.

CUSTOMER CHURN PREDICTION MODEL: A CASE OF THE TELECOMMUNICATION MARKET

Yana Fareniuk, Tetiana Zatonatska, Oleksandr Dluhopolskyi, Oksana Kovalenko — Tue, 13 Dec 2022 00:00:00 +0100

The telecommunications market is well developed but is characterized by
oversaturation and high levels of competition. Based on this, the urgent problem
is to retain customers and predict the outflow of customer base by switching
subscribers to the services of competitors. Data Science technologies and
data mining methodology create significant opportunities for companies that
implement data analysis and modeling for development of customer churn
prediction models. The research goals are to compare different approaches and
methods for customer churn prediction and construct different Data Science
models to classify customers according to the probability of their churn from
the company's client base and predict potential customers who could stop to
use the company's services. On the example of one of the leading Ukrainian
telecommunication companies, the article presents the results of different
classification models, such as C5.0, KNN, Neural Net, Ensemble, Random Tree,
Neural Net Ensemble, etc. All models are prepared in IBM SPSS Modeler and
have a high level of quality (the overall accuracy and AUC ROC are more than
90%). So, the research proves the possibility and feasibility of using models in the
further classification of customers to predict customer loyalty to the company
and minimize consumer’s churn. The key factors influencing the customer
churn are identified and form a basis for future prediction of customer outflow
and optimization of company’s services. Implementation of customer churn
prediction models will help to maintain customer loyalty, reduce customer
outflow and increase business results.

CHANGES IN THE INTERNATIONAL WINE TRADE AND POLICIES FOR THE PROMOTION OF MOLDOVAN WINES

Ugbo Johnbull — Tue, 13 Dec 2022 00:00:00 +0100

From an economic perspective, the COVID-19 crisis has been an exogenous
shock to most local and international markets. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic,
physical separation (or social distancing) to prevent the spread of the virus
has led to feelings of isolation and loneliness, increasing the prevalence of
depression, anxiety, post-traumatic stress disorders, and insomnia in the
population. However, during the lockdown, technological devices have provided
a way for people to maintain social connections with friends, family, their social
networks, and/or the wider community. This article analyzes the changes on
the international wine market and estimates the exports of Moldovan wine,
especially in the neighboring region, which includes Romania, Ukraine and
Bulgaria to Nigeria, considered a new market and characterized by the lack of
traditions in wine consumption.

SUPPLY CHAIN DYNAMICS AFTER THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC AND STOCK MARKET PERFORMANCE: EVIDENCE FROM THE

Lucia Gibilaro , Gianluca Mattarocci — Tue, 13 Dec 2022 00:00:00 +0100

Supply chain risk is a strategic issue for managing multinational companies,
and Covid-19 has shown the relevance of this type of risk for the firm's survival
probability. The market may perceive the choice of replacing some of the main
customers or suppliers as an increase or a decrease of the risk based on the features
of the new supply chain members, and markets tend to penalize companies that
increase their exposure to unaffordable events. During the pandemic, many
supply chains suffered from glitches and companies were obliged to redefine
their network by selecting their new strategic customers and/or suppliers.
The paper evaluates the supply chain composition strategies of a set of
multinational companies based in the US during the last decade. It highlights
the differences in supply chain management behavior before and during
the pandemic. Data collected allow testing the impact on the stock market
performance of modifying the supply chain network by adding new members
that may have a different level of risk. Results show that the market reaction to
supply chain updates changed after the Covid-19, and nowadays there is greater
attention on the credit risk of the new companies entering the supply chain.

A MULTI-CRITERIA APPROACH TO THE COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE GLOBAL INNOVATION INDEX ON THE EXAMPLE OF THE WESTERN BALKAN COUNTRIES

Ilija Stojanović, Adis Puška, Marko Selaković — Fri, 09 Dec 2022 00:00:00 +0100

Innovation is crucial for the competitiveness of countries in the global market. Countries oriented to progress must invest in innovative activities. Using the example of the Western Balkan countries, this study investigated their innovative competitiveness. The indicators of the Global Innovation Index (GII) were used for the years 2019, 2020, and 2021. A multi-criteria approach was based on the innovative SMART approach. The weights of the criteria were determined using the CRITIC (criteria importance through intercriteria correlation) method, while the CRADIS (compromise ranking of alternatives from distance to ideal solution) method ranked the Western Balkan countries according to their innovative characteristics. The results showed that Montenegro had the best innovation indicators, followed by Serbia, while Albania had the worst indicators. This research showed an innovative approach of using four normalizations, and the advantages of these normalizations were used to contribute to stabilization in multi-criteria decision-making.

FACTORS OF INVESTMENT IN RENEWABLE ENERGY AND ENERGY EFFICIENCY IN ALGERIA

Manal Soulaf Chikhi, Mehdi Bouchetara, Messaoud Zerouti — Tue, 13 Dec 2022 00:00:00 +0100

Our paper aims to identify the most important factors determining companies’
decision to invest in the energy transition in Algeria. Energy transition has
been many governments’ main topic of interest over the last decades, climate
change has led many of them to establish long-term plans for a successful energy
transition; these plans aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions following the
guidelines of the COP21. Through a quantitative approach, we have addressed
a questionnaire to different companies operating in Algeria and have obtained a
total of 117 responses. The results show that financial, technical and regulatory
factors have minimal impact on companies' decision to invest in renewable
energy and energy efficiency in Algeria. Further studies should explore other
investment factors to help accurately determine those that significantly impact
companies’ decisions to invest in Algeria’s renewable energy and energy efficiency.
Furthermore, targetting one sector at a time and exploring the alternatives of
foreign direct investment in renewable energy can result in higher efficiency.

INNOVATION IN TOURISM AS A MODEL OF RECOVERY IN THE POSTPANDEMIC PERIOD

Rade Ratković, Milica Jablan, Milan Liješević — Tue, 13 Dec 2022 00:00:00 +0100

The COVID-19 virus pandemic has influenced tourism policy makers to change
their decisions and management methods due to the new challenging situation.
The inability to establish normal tourism business, due to difficult mobility of
tourists and unfavorable epidemiological situation, has led to finding various
innovative solutions that could help improve results in tourism. In addition to
improve the current situation, the innovations introduced during the pandemic
were aimed at bringing certain changes in the coming period, when the tourism
industry is not burdened by the pandemic, which will accelerate the growth
of the tourism economy. The main goal of this paper is to point out certain
models of implementation of innovative solutions, which could affect the more
dynamic development of tourism in Montenegro. The subject of research in this
paper are innovations in tourism and their application with special reference
to Montenegro. Montenegro has not yet fully recognized the importance of
introducing innovations in tourism, so the next period should be dedicated to
their implementation. The tourist offer of Montenegro should be enriched by the
introduction of new specific forms of tourism, in order to adequately meet the
demands of the main emitting markets. In addition to the innovative tourist offer,
solutions should be sought in the integration of digital and virtual technologies
into marketing functions, because the modern tourist business is increasingly
relying on these technologies. Research has shown that it is necessary to work on
creating new strategies and plans that will more studiously deal with this issue.