QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING OF BARLEY PRODUCT PARAMETERS

Abstract

The aim of the paper was to formulate quantitative models to forecast future trends in barley production in the Republic of Srpska. The applied research methods were the descriptive analysis method and the analytical statistical method, i.e. the Box-Jenkins model based on the ARIMA model. The results show that the increase in barley harvested areas will continue in the five-year forecasting period to a level of about 15,000 ha in 2022. The value of barley production will increase as well as the harvested area, and barley production in the last year of the forecasting period will be 54.540 tons. The next period of barley yield will characterize oscillations year after year, and the achieved value in the last year of the forecast will be at the level of 3.47 tons per hectare.