A NEW INTUITION INTO TOURISM-INCLUSIVE GROWTH NEXUS IN TURKEY AND NIGERIA (1995 – 2018)

Abstract

This paper examines the symmetric and asymmetric causal relationships between tourism and
inclusive growth in Turkey and Nigeria over the period 1995Q1-2018Q4. The study employs a
bootstrap simulation method with leverage adjustments to achieve the objective of the study. The
method is used to see whether positive or negative tourism shocks cause inclusive growth and
whether positive or negative inclusive growth shocks cause tourism activity. The results show no
evidence of asymmetric causality between tourism and inclusive growth, while there is evidence of
symmetric causality running from tourism to inclusive growth in Turkey. On the other hand, there
is neither symmetric nor asymmetric causal relationship between tourism and inclusive growth in
Nigeria. In sum, both neutrality and tourism-led growth hypothesis hold in Turkey, while Nigeria
gives credence to neutrality hypothesis. The recommendations coming from the findings are
that the tourism sector in both countries, Nigeria in particular, should be repositioned for better
performance and effectiveness in stimulating inclusive growth. Rather than focusing on pro-poor
and micro-based tourism policies that favour selected communities and localities, tourism should
be included in development plans nationally, in order to ensure wider participation and more
encompassing trickle-down effects on the citizenry. Furthermore, both countries should implement
policies that will stimulate their tourism sectors for a larger and more significant contribution to
real GDP.