ULOGA RASTA PREMIJA ŽIVOTNOG I NEŽIVOTNOG OSIGURANJA U EKONOMSKOM RASTU ZEMALJA EVROSPKE UNIJE: PANEL ARDL ANALIZA

Abstract

nsurance plays a crucial role in economic development by providing financial security, encouraging investment, and reducing risks in the economy. In particular, the growth of life and non-life insurance premiums can contribute to economic stability and GDP growth by mobilizing capital and improving market efficiency. The aim of this analysis is to examine whether and to what extent the growth rates of gross life and non-life insurance premiums contribute to GDP growth in the European Union countries, both in the long and short run. The research is based on quarterly panel data for European Union countries, covering the period from the fourth quarter of 2017 to the fourth quarter of 2024. To analyze these interdependencies, the panel ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) model is employed, allowing for a consistent and efficient estimation of both long- and short-run effects of insurance on economic growth. This model accommodates variables of the same or different levels of integration, provided they are below I(2), ensuring more precise results. Given the limitations of the software environment, parameter estimation is conducted using the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) method, which allows for a reliable interpretation of the long-term relationship between insurance and economic growth while permitting heterogeneity in short-term effects across observational units.