INTERNATIONAL TOURISM DEMAND IN MACEDONIA: CURRENT STATUS AND ESTIMATION

Abstract

The paper aims to investigate current international tourism demand in Macedonia, as well as to make an attempt to forecast it in a short-term horizon by 2014. For this purpose, the past and current patterns are based on stylized facts obtained from secondary data spreading over a sample period from 2000-2011. Furthermore, the estimation of future trends is based on Box-Jenkins methodology. Several alternative specifications were introduced and upon the outcomes of standard indicators for accuracy testing, the research identified the most appropriate one. According to projected values, moderate, but constant increase of international tourist arrivals is expected. The paper strongly recommends this empirical evidence in a line of mitigating the potential negative impacts as well as in preparation of tourism development plan in Macedonia. Finally, its contribution lies in the fact that it enriches poorly-developed empirical academic work within this scientific area in Macedonia.