The intensity of regional food trade among the Western Balkan countries during periods of crisis

Abstract

This study explores the intensity of food trade among the Western Balkan (WB) countries (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia) during periods of crisis, emphasizing the impact of COVID-19 and the Ukrainian-Russian conflict on regional trade dynamics. The impact of this crisis was measured over three analyzed years: 2018, representing a reference year for comparison, then 2020 as the year affected by COVID-19, and 2022, being affected by the pandemic as well as the Ukrainian-Russian crisis. All data collected are from the “Trade Statistics for International Business Development Database”. Conclusions about the intensity of exchange of agricultural and food products within the WB region were obtained by calculating Regional Intensity of Trade of Export (RITE) and Regional Intensity of Trade of Import (RITI). Higher values than 1 indicate intensity in trade or dominance of trade in specific products with a particular region compared with the trade with the world. In the case of trade among the WB countries, the COVID-19 crisis did not affect the increase in trade volume. However, there was an increase in intra-regional trade by about 50% when compared with 2020 and 2022. The RITE coefficients for all countries except Albania were greater than 1, indicating intensified export of agricultural and food products to the WB region compared with their global export. The RITI index is very important in crisis, as it somewhat answers the question of who "feeds" the country during crises. All WB countries had the RITI indices greater than 1, indicating a higher intensity of food imports from the region compared with the world. According to this research, the RIT coefficients measured generally declined in the years of crises, meaning that the countries shifted their export focus to other regions but still the most significant foreign and intense trade partners in agricultural and food products were countries from the region.