HUMAN DEVELOPMENT IN THE WESTERN BALKANS: A PANEL ANALYSIS OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, LIFE EXPECTANCY, AND SOCIOECONOMIC INEQUALITIES

Abstract

This study examines the statistical associations among gross domestic product per capita (GDP per capita), life expectancy at birth, income inequality, inequality in life expectancy, and human development across five Western Balkan countries. The analysis utilizes secondary data from the United Nations Development Programme’s Human Development Reports and the United Nations Statistics Division.
The results indicate that, in 2022, Montenegro and Serbia are classified within the very high human development category, while Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and North Macedonia remain in the high human development category. Correlation analysis demonstrates a positive association between the Human Development Index (HDI) and GDP per capita, and negative associations between HDI and both income inequality and inequality in life expectancy. The association between HDI and life expectancy is relatively weak. Fixed-effects panel regression results show that GDP per capita, life expectancy, and income inequality are not statistically significantly associated with HDI. In contrast, inequality in life expectancy exhibits a negative association with HDI that approaches statistical significance. These results should be interpreted as statistical associations rather than causal relationships.